FF and NLHE -Training wheels
If you aren't a fan of Poker or Fantasy Football, dear god. Move on. Nothing to see here. This post will bore you to tears.
A while back, I became obsessed with the idea that FF and poker are essentially the same thing, only different formats. I want to explain out here why I think so and then figure out how that can help me.
At their core, poker and FF are popular because they have that magic balance of luck vs. skill. They involve enough strategy and technique in order to allow for endless amount of analysis, discussion, and advice. See the multitudes of poker books and FF mags/websites out there. In both arenas, there is what is considered the "correct play" that's been decided on by the gurus: drafting LT #1 or raising AK preflop, etc.
However, with that correct play for those who take game seriously, there is a luck factor big enough that those who do not study up can compete based on the variance of the results. You can have a NL Tourney with wives and uncles and people who have little experience, and the best player won't always win. In fact, if they win a majority of the time, they should be happy. Same with FF.
The amount of effort you put into both activities for sure increases your advantage and chances to be successful, but it does not guarantee anything.
Which is why so many people are drawn to both. In almost everything I do, I love to analyze everything to irk out the maximum advantage. Shopping for a new TV, for example. I'll research it down to the best store to buy the exact model I want for the exact price I want. This translates directly to Poker and FF as I study them both pretty extensively. When I show up to a draft or sit down at a table, I want to feel like I'm better prepared and therefore at an advantage. I want to make those who are unprepared pay for their "grasshopperness."
Conversely, I understand with a larger investment comes a greater risk of agony upon defeat. For those who play either game with little investment, I can see the reward offered to them of getting something for nothing. They invested almost nothing, yet feasted off the back of the laborers. For example, the guy who shows up to your draft with a six pack and no cheatsheet, yet somehow seems to win the league every once in awhile. Or Chris Moneymaker or Varkonyi.
Once that correlation is established. I think it may be quite easy to make comparisons between the two that help you get better at both. Take strategy from one and apply it to the other.
Big cards are like Stud players. You want to have them. In the long run, they will make you money. However, AK misses the flop much of the time, and LT sometimes gets you 30 yards. That doesn't mean you shouldn't stop raising Pre-Flop with big cards, or bench a stud when the matchup is tough. Both give you a higher % of winning and you must play them strong until circumstances dictate otherwise. But don't get too obsessed. Overcards to a ragged flop are like an aging stud. They might get you there with a spike on the turn or an outburst in week 6, but generally its best to cut ties.
One of the bigger things I've learned lately while playing poker is that ABC poker can only take you so far. At some point, you have to take the training wheels off. Make a move on instinct, read, and table situation rather than what Dan Harrington says in his latest book. As I grinded my way up the micro limit tables, I realized that the biggest difference as you move up is that aggression factor increases in your opponents. This is because good players at the higher limits are well aware that you need to make moves that are unorthodox, but hope to get you paid off later. This is one of the main things I haven't translated to FF, but need to.
FF underwent a revolution about 5-7 years ago. Gone were the days of buying a newspaper to check weekly injuries and a 2-month-old magazine to help you in your draft. With teh internets, all the information was out they’re to be had by everyone. Almost Gutenberg, actually. With everyone having the same information, the new strategy is not knowing more, it’s making the right assessment. Preseason, everyone has the same top 10 list, and unfortunately, most draft I see or am in, the picks go in order. All the information has frozen people into slots. They are afraid to draft anyone besides who their list says to draft next for fear of looking the fool. But really, these lists are far more arbitrary than people give them credit for. There is good reasoning Player A comes before Player B, but in the end, its a pretty loose science.
I have been as guilty as anyone in this. And it’s a guaranteed ticket to a 7-7 record. You may get lucky every third year or so, but generally you aren't ever going to shoot the moon. A more aggressive strategy, I think, will leave you dead in the water some years, but have you 12-2 in others. Now, back to poker, taking off the training wheels doesn't mean you turn into a maniac LAG. You can be creative but still keep a base in fundamentally solid poker.
Whether I have the courage to do this is still in the air. Its easy to talk about, but when it comes down to making trades or draft picks in which you are sacrificing current value for what you believe is long term potential, its a risk. A risk that takes courage, because no one wants to look the fool, but maybe you look the smart one in the end. I dunno.
A while back, I became obsessed with the idea that FF and poker are essentially the same thing, only different formats. I want to explain out here why I think so and then figure out how that can help me.
At their core, poker and FF are popular because they have that magic balance of luck vs. skill. They involve enough strategy and technique in order to allow for endless amount of analysis, discussion, and advice. See the multitudes of poker books and FF mags/websites out there. In both arenas, there is what is considered the "correct play" that's been decided on by the gurus: drafting LT #1 or raising AK preflop, etc.
However, with that correct play for those who take game seriously, there is a luck factor big enough that those who do not study up can compete based on the variance of the results. You can have a NL Tourney with wives and uncles and people who have little experience, and the best player won't always win. In fact, if they win a majority of the time, they should be happy. Same with FF.
The amount of effort you put into both activities for sure increases your advantage and chances to be successful, but it does not guarantee anything.
Which is why so many people are drawn to both. In almost everything I do, I love to analyze everything to irk out the maximum advantage. Shopping for a new TV, for example. I'll research it down to the best store to buy the exact model I want for the exact price I want. This translates directly to Poker and FF as I study them both pretty extensively. When I show up to a draft or sit down at a table, I want to feel like I'm better prepared and therefore at an advantage. I want to make those who are unprepared pay for their "grasshopperness."
Conversely, I understand with a larger investment comes a greater risk of agony upon defeat. For those who play either game with little investment, I can see the reward offered to them of getting something for nothing. They invested almost nothing, yet feasted off the back of the laborers. For example, the guy who shows up to your draft with a six pack and no cheatsheet, yet somehow seems to win the league every once in awhile. Or Chris Moneymaker or Varkonyi.
Once that correlation is established. I think it may be quite easy to make comparisons between the two that help you get better at both. Take strategy from one and apply it to the other.
Big cards are like Stud players. You want to have them. In the long run, they will make you money. However, AK misses the flop much of the time, and LT sometimes gets you 30 yards. That doesn't mean you shouldn't stop raising Pre-Flop with big cards, or bench a stud when the matchup is tough. Both give you a higher % of winning and you must play them strong until circumstances dictate otherwise. But don't get too obsessed. Overcards to a ragged flop are like an aging stud. They might get you there with a spike on the turn or an outburst in week 6, but generally its best to cut ties.
One of the bigger things I've learned lately while playing poker is that ABC poker can only take you so far. At some point, you have to take the training wheels off. Make a move on instinct, read, and table situation rather than what Dan Harrington says in his latest book. As I grinded my way up the micro limit tables, I realized that the biggest difference as you move up is that aggression factor increases in your opponents. This is because good players at the higher limits are well aware that you need to make moves that are unorthodox, but hope to get you paid off later. This is one of the main things I haven't translated to FF, but need to.
FF underwent a revolution about 5-7 years ago. Gone were the days of buying a newspaper to check weekly injuries and a 2-month-old magazine to help you in your draft. With teh internets, all the information was out they’re to be had by everyone. Almost Gutenberg, actually. With everyone having the same information, the new strategy is not knowing more, it’s making the right assessment. Preseason, everyone has the same top 10 list, and unfortunately, most draft I see or am in, the picks go in order. All the information has frozen people into slots. They are afraid to draft anyone besides who their list says to draft next for fear of looking the fool. But really, these lists are far more arbitrary than people give them credit for. There is good reasoning Player A comes before Player B, but in the end, its a pretty loose science.
I have been as guilty as anyone in this. And it’s a guaranteed ticket to a 7-7 record. You may get lucky every third year or so, but generally you aren't ever going to shoot the moon. A more aggressive strategy, I think, will leave you dead in the water some years, but have you 12-2 in others. Now, back to poker, taking off the training wheels doesn't mean you turn into a maniac LAG. You can be creative but still keep a base in fundamentally solid poker.
Whether I have the courage to do this is still in the air. Its easy to talk about, but when it comes down to making trades or draft picks in which you are sacrificing current value for what you believe is long term potential, its a risk. A risk that takes courage, because no one wants to look the fool, but maybe you look the smart one in the end. I dunno.
posted by Roark_8 at 6:53 AM
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